Party Discipline & Switch Risk

Who is drifting from caucus?

This model combines recorded House ballots, party-majority positions, recent dissent, and prior party switches. It is a signal for attention, not a claim that someone will switch parties.

Votes
107
Ballots
35,479
Dissent
0.1%
Watchlist
2

Switch-Risk Leaderboard

Score = long-run dissent, recent dissent acceleration, prior switches, and short current-party tenure.

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
Beaches鈥擡ast York, ON 路 LPC
6 dissent votes across 101 comparable ballots (5.9%); 1 in the last 90 days
Watch
41
Watch this session
Lori Idlout
Nunavut, NU 路 LPC
1 dissent votes across 102 comparable ballots (1%); 1 in the last 90 days; 1 prior party switch
Watch
28
Watch this session
Jacob Mantle
York鈥擠urham, ON 路 CPC
2 dissent votes across 103 comparable ballots (1.9%); 1 in the last 90 days
Low
20
No near-term signal
Aaron Gunn
North Island鈥擯owell River, BC 路 CPC
1 dissent votes across 106 comparable ballots (0.9%); 1 in the last 90 days
Low
15
No near-term signal
Andrew Scheer
Regina鈥擰u'Appelle, SK 路 CPC
1 dissent votes across 104 comparable ballots (1%); 1 in the last 90 days
Low
15
No near-term signal
Aslam Rana
Hamilton Centre, ON 路 LPC
1 dissent votes across 107 comparable ballots (0.9%); 1 in the last 90 days
Low
15
No near-term signal
Ben Lobb
Huron鈥擝ruce, ON 路 CPC
1 dissent votes across 106 comparable ballots (0.9%); 1 in the last 90 days
Low
15
No near-term signal
Branden Leslie
Portage鈥擫isgar, MB 路 CPC
1 dissent votes across 103 comparable ballots (1%); 1 in the last 90 days
Low
15
No near-term signal
Chi Nguyen
Spadina鈥擧arbourfront, ON 路 LPC
1 dissent votes across 101 comparable ballots (1%); 1 in the last 90 days
Low
15
No near-term signal
Fares Al Soud
Mississauga Centre, ON 路 LPC
1 dissent votes across 107 comparable ballots (0.9%); 1 in the last 90 days
Low
15
No near-term signal
Greg Fergus
Hull鈥擜ylmer, QC 路 LPC
1 dissent votes across 107 comparable ballots (0.9%); 1 in the last 90 days
Low
15
No near-term signal
Gurbux Saini
Fleetwood鈥擯ort Kells, BC 路 LPC
1 dissent votes across 105 comparable ballots (1%); 1 in the last 90 days
Low
15
No near-term signal
Iqra Khalid
Mississauga鈥擡rin Mills, ON 路 LPC
1 dissent votes across 104 comparable ballots (1%); 1 in the last 90 days
Low
15
No near-term signal
Jake Sawatzky
New Westminster鈥擝urnaby鈥擬aillardville, BC 路 LPC
1 dissent votes across 107 comparable ballots (0.9%); 1 in the last 90 days
Low
15
No near-term signal
Jeff Kibble
Cowichan鈥擬alahat鈥擫angford, BC 路 CPC
1 dissent votes across 104 comparable ballots (1%); 1 in the last 90 days
Low
15
No near-term signal
Jo毛l Godin
Portneuf鈥擩acques-Cartier, QC 路 CPC
1 dissent votes across 99 comparable ballots (1%); 1 in the last 90 days
Low
15
No near-term signal

Caucus Cohesion

Lower cohesion means more ballots against the party majority.

Liberal Party of Canada
99.9%
22 dissent ballots / 17,709 comparable
Conservative Party of Canada
99.9%
14 dissent ballots / 14,672 comparable
Bloc Qu茅b茅cois
100.0%
0 dissent ballots / 2,300 comparable
New Democratic Party
100.0%
0 dissent ballots / 694 comparable
Green Party of Canada
100.0%
0 dissent ballots / 104 comparable

Dissent Leaders

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
LPC 路 5.9%
6
votes
Jacob Mantle
CPC 路 1.9%
2
votes
Steven Guilbeault
LPC 路 1.2%
1
votes
Matt Strauss
CPC 路 1.1%
1
votes
Jo毛l Godin
CPC 路 1.0%
1
votes
Chi Nguyen
LPC 路 1.0%
1
votes
Lori Idlout
LPC 路 1.0%
1
votes
Branden Leslie
CPC 路 1.0%
1
votes

Most Divisive Votes

Ranked by party disagreement and individual dissent ballots.

2nd reading of Bill C-233, An Act to amend the Export and Import Permits Act
2026-03-11 路 Failed
75
dissent
Max party disagreement: 9.7%
2nd reading of Bill S-211, An Act respecting a national framework on sports betting advertising
2026-04-22 路 Passed
40
dissent
Max party disagreement: 6.1%
2nd reading of Bill C-244, An Act to amend the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999 and the Wrecked, Abandoned or Hazardous Vessels Act
2026-02-25 路 Passed
20
dissent
Max party disagreement: 3.1%
2nd reading of Bill C-228, An Act to amend the Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Act (prior review of treaties by Parliament)
2026-01-28 路 Failed
10
dissent
Max party disagreement: 1.5%
Bill C-9, An Act to amend the Criminal Code (hate propaganda, hate crime and access to religious or cultural places) (recommittal to a committee)
2026-03-25 路 Failed
10
dissent
Max party disagreement: 1.2%
Address in Reply to the Speech from the Throne (amendment as amended with subamendment)
2025-06-02 路 Passed
0
dissent
Max party disagreement: 0.6%
Government Business No. 1 (Proceedings on Bill C-5, An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act)
2025-06-16 路 Passed
5
dissent
Max party disagreement: 0.6%
3rd reading and adoption of Bill C-5, An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act (Part 2)
2025-06-20 路 Passed
5
dissent
Max party disagreement: 0.6%
Concurrence at report stage of Bill C-5, An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act
2025-06-20 路 Passed
5
dissent
Max party disagreement: 0.6%
Bill C-5, An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act (report stage amendment) (Motion 19)
2025-06-20 路 Failed
5
dissent
Max party disagreement: 0.6%
Bill C-5, An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act (report stage amendment) (Motion 1)
2025-06-20 路 Failed
5
dissent
Max party disagreement: 0.6%

Latest Dissent Ballots

Source-backed individual ballots against party majority.

Andrew Scheer
2nd reading of Bill S-211, An Act respecting a national framework on sports betting advertising
2026-04-22 路 CPC majority Yes
No Source
Ben Lobb
2nd reading of Bill S-211, An Act respecting a national framework on sports betting advertising
2026-04-22 路 CPC majority Yes
No Source
Leslyn Lewis
2nd reading of Bill S-211, An Act respecting a national framework on sports betting advertising
2026-04-22 路 CPC majority Yes
No Source
Branden Leslie
2nd reading of Bill S-211, An Act respecting a national framework on sports betting advertising
2026-04-22 路 CPC majority Yes
No Source
Melissa Lantsman
2nd reading of Bill S-211, An Act respecting a national framework on sports betting advertising
2026-04-22 路 CPC majority Yes
No Source
Tamara Jansen
2nd reading of Bill S-211, An Act respecting a national framework on sports betting advertising
2026-04-22 路 CPC majority Yes
No Source
Jo毛l Godin
2nd reading of Bill S-211, An Act respecting a national framework on sports betting advertising
2026-04-22 路 CPC majority Yes
No Source
Ziad Aboultaif
2nd reading of Bill S-211, An Act respecting a national framework on sports betting advertising
2026-04-22 路 CPC majority Yes
No Source
Louis Villeneuve
Bill C-9, An Act to amend the Criminal Code (hate propaganda, hate crime and access to religious or cultural places) (recommittal to a committee)
2026-03-25 路 LPC majority No
Yes Source
Jake Sawatzky
Bill C-9, An Act to amend the Criminal Code (hate propaganda, hate crime and access to religious or cultural places) (recommittal to a committee)
2026-03-25 路 LPC majority No
Yes Source
Sameer Zuberi
2nd reading of Bill C-233, An Act to amend the Export and Import Permits Act
2026-03-11 路 LPC majority No
Yes Source
Salma Zahid
2nd reading of Bill C-233, An Act to amend the Export and Import Permits Act
2026-03-11 路 LPC majority No
Yes Source
Patrick Weiler
2nd reading of Bill C-233, An Act to amend the Export and Import Permits Act
2026-03-11 路 LPC majority No
Yes Source
Kristina Tesser Derksen
2nd reading of Bill C-233, An Act to amend the Export and Import Permits Act
2026-03-11 路 LPC majority No
Yes Source
Gurbux Saini
2nd reading of Bill C-233, An Act to amend the Export and Import Permits Act
2026-03-11 路 LPC majority No
Yes Source
Aslam Rana
2nd reading of Bill C-233, An Act to amend the Export and Import Permits Act
2026-03-11 路 LPC majority No
Yes Source